Looking at the monthly chart you can't speak of an uptrend or a rally of the euro.
So far we are witnessing a timid consolidation in a downtrend.
On the weekly chart I got a sell signal to go short on the euro on 18/08/2014 at 1,3242.
That week the currency pair fell through the 233 EMA and indicators were pointing downwards.
Since mid-March the currency is forming a weak ascending triangle pattern.
The resistance of this triangle joins more or less the 55 EMA, which now is situated at 1,1592.
An ascending triangle is normally positive and a continuation pattern of an existing uptrend.
This one however is forming within a downtrend. Is there a chance that it will be a reversal pattern ?
So far I don't find it very robust after 6 months...
On the daily chart I got a clear sell signal for the euro on 16/07/2014 at 1,3528.
A second sell/short signal was given on 17/12/2014 at 1,2337.
We are now at 1,1253.
The 21 EMA has settled above the 55 EMA and that's a first positive sign for the euro.
However both EMA's are still way under the 233 EMA.
Conclusion : the downtrend remains intact after this half a year consolidation. However it could be wise and prudent to take some partial profits.
Do you have a question ? Feel free to email me : kiss4emm@gmail.com
You can ask the question in english, french, dutch, german or spanish.
Arturo Botticelli,
kiss4emm.
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